We're exploring whether prediction markets can provide accessible protection for creators and small businesses exposed to inflation, gas prices, recessions, and more.
Small businesses and creators face real exposure to macro risks, but traditional hedging tools are out of reach. A food truck owner worries about gas prices cutting into margins. A freelance designer fears inflation eroding client budgets. A local retailer watches recession indicators with anxiety.
These aren't abstract concerns—they're business risks that can make or break a small operation. Yet the financial tools to protect against them are designed for institutions, not independent creators or small teams.
Exposed to fuel price volatility that directly impacts margins
Ad revenue drops during economic downturns
Raw material costs spike with inflation
Loses clients when consumer spending tightens
What if we could map your business risks to prediction markets—like Kalshi and Polymarket—and automatically hedge your exposure? Instead of complex derivatives or institutional products, you'd get simple, accessible protection.
Mantix would be an auto-hedging assistant that connects your real-world business risks to prediction market positions. You tell us what keeps you up at night (gas prices, inflation, recession risk), and we help you find and maintain protective positions in relevant markets.
Tell us what macro risks affect your business: fuel costs, inflation, consumer spending, interest rates, etc.
We find relevant prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket) that track the risks you care about.
The system helps you maintain protective positions automatically, adjusting as your risk profile changes.
You maintain control of your funds. We're an assistant, not a custodian. Safety-first, always.
Prediction markets offer several advantages over traditional hedging instruments:
Lower barriers to entry than institutional derivatives
Market prices reflect collective intelligence about future events
Markets exist for specific questions (e.g., "Will gas prices exceed $4/gallon by Q2?")
Growing markets like Kalshi provide real liquidity for risk management
By connecting business risks to these markets, we can create a new category of accessible hedging tools for the long tail of businesses that need protection but can't access traditional instruments.
We're in the idea validation phase. Your feedback helps us understand if this solves a real problem worth building.